According to the survey results of the Risk Society and Policy Research Center (RSPRC), National Taiwan University, currently 51 parties have communicated their long-term strategy to UNFCCC. In addition, there are 29 countries and the European Union (EU) have policy documents which contain measures for all emission scopes that are covered by the target. The former (the 51 parties) can be regarded as these countries have proposed a Net Zero Pathway (such as Taiwan), the latter (the 29 countries & EU) means that these countries have specific measures in various scopes of emissions reduction in their Net Zero Pathways. In brief, there are at least 17 countries and the EU (17+1) that meet both of these two conditions and whose policy documents are closest to the meaning of "specific Net Zero Pathways and measures" (Refer to the attachment for more details. By this standard, Taiwan should be equivalent to the 51 countries, not the 17+1 countries). However, among the over 130 countries that have already declared or planned to achieve the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, only a few countries have proposed a specific Net Zero Pathway. Therefore, it is still worthy of affirmation that our country declared "Taiwan's Pathway to Net Zero Emissions by 2050 and the Description of Its General Strategy" (hereinafter referred to as "Declaration of Pathway") on March 30, 2022! For this pathway, the RSPRC would like to offer comments and policy recommendations are as follows:
Brown economic development model will face huge challenge from net zero transition
1. Brown economic development model:
As a developing country with a brown economic development model, Taiwan develops its economy with low production costs in terms of subsided water prices, electricity prices, oil prices and low labor wages, resulting in a sluggish energy transition and slow industrial transition.
2. Double pressure from domestic and abroad:
The international community competed to advocate net zero carbon emissions at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) held in 2021. This has put Taiwan under the pressure of international Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and domestic air pollution.
3. The effects of COVID-19 pandemic and wars:
Because the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed the development of green energy, and the Russian-Ukrainian War has led to a sharp rise in international energy prices, Taiwan has been facing the exacerbated pressure in both energy transition and net zero transition.
4. Lack of policy integration mechanism:
The government's policy of banning the sale of fuel vehicles, the freeze in electricity prices, the controversy over the subsidy for gasoline and electric vehicles, and the low carbon reduction targets for the industrial sector in the second phase of the sectoral carbon reduction process has made it difficult to implement the net zero transition pathway, and there is an urgent need to build a system of social support so as to jointly describe a green economic vision for sustainable development.
The vision of net zero society in 2030 and 2050 must be constructed
1. Construction of a net zero society:
Not only can the pathway to net zero carbon emissions drive Taiwan from a brown economic development model to that of a green economy in terms of economy but it can also transform our country from an economy-led developing country scarifying its political and social systems including its environment and labor to a low-carbon society that is socially innovative, people-oriented, environmentally prosperous. Nevertheless, the pathway declared by the National Development Council has only stressed problem-solving strategies but has not yet constructed a forward-looking blueprint and an overall picture for years 2030 and 2050.
2. Ensuring generational justice:
Taiwan needs to have clearer national visions, goals, and agenda, by which cross-generational dialogue can be conducted so as to pay attention to the voices of future generations in the buildup of a new system, new discourse, new identity, and new representation, so that the country and its industry and society can be driven from the original carbon lock-in to carbon neutral. According to this pathway, Taiwan is in an urgent need to build up a forward-looking vision for years 2030 and 2050 so as to achieve the goal of building up not only a participatory, diverse, cross-generational country, but also engaging enterprises and societies. Only by building such a forward-looking vision can we win social trust, communication and support to implement a new green policy under the architecture of net zero transition.
Scientific and technological governance organizations and climate legal systems must be strengthened
1. Central guidance and implementation:
It is suggested that the Office of the President copy the pension reform system to set up a "Reform Committee for Net Zero Carbon Emissions" to guide the policy promotion of inter-ministerial committees, just like South Korea set up the "Presidential Committee on Green Growth " under the Presidential Office of Lee Myung-bak or the "Presidential Committee on Carbon Neutrality" under that of President Moon Jae-in, so that the cross-ministerial net zero policies of difficult attributes can be supervised and promoted on a monthly basis.
2. The new organization for governance:
A "Climate Change Committee" should be set up to carry out dynamic and forward-looking policy planning and promotion for the new situations of net zero carbon emissions and a robust inter-ministerial committee should be established to comply with the guidance and command system of the Presidential Office and the Executive Yuan. At the same time, regarding the complexity of climate science and governance, it is recommended to establish an independent and supervisory "Climate Change Committee" following the examples in the UK and Germany so as to prepare carbon budgets and supervise the implementation. Alternatively, an EU-like "European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change" can be established, so that budgets for projects such as forward-looking infrastructure plans, six core strategic industry promotion plans, etc., can be integrated under these frameworks and resources can be coordinated and reallocated across ministries so as to overcome the capacity constraints of one single ministry. It is also suggested to strengthen the climate resilience of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized ones, through the reform of energy tax, carbon tax and related guidance.
3. Establishment of governance and systems for climate adaptation:
According to the COP26 resolution, the pathway to net zero carbon emissions would be difficult to achieve without resources and support for climate adaptation. At present, the declared pathway and the draft of Climate Change Act are insufficient for the design that incorporate climate adaptation policies and actions for the pathway. Meanwhile, the draft bill considerably simplifies the key adaptation issues. It is suggested that a special chapter on climate adaptation should be strengthened, and mechanisms and pathways for net zero governance and adaptation should be formulated.
Suggestion for consolidating industrial transformation and pathways to net zero carbon emissions for various sectors
1. Lack of consolidation on specific industrial structure problems:
The declared pathway mostly focuses on the future technological transformation of the industries but lacks the analysis on how to make an inventory of and build up the frameworks to solve the structural problems for the high energy-consuming and high carbon-emission industries. Such an analysis is essential for a closer look at the key issues of industrial transition and to accelerate the pace to get rid of the brown economic development model.
2. The planning for green energy base load is not clear:
The pathway to be promoted has estimated the potential power growth but lacks specific energy efficiency and energy conservation policies and measures to curb the demand for power growth. With regard to geothermal energy, biomass energy, ocean energy, and hydrogen energy, it is necessary to strengthen technological research and development and its feasibility assessment to plan green energy-based load energy so as to avoid the duck curve risk of wind energy and solar energy. For example, in 2020, the proportion of total biomass power generation in EU and Germany was 6% and 8%, respectively.
3. Lack of relevant legal systems for the regulation of electric vehicle charging equipment:
As there are currently no specific measures in Taiwan to follow up the related safety and management issues derived from the widespread installation of electric vehicle charging equipment, it is recommended to formulate special laws or regulations related to electric vehicle charging management. If necessary, please refer to Korea's "Act on the Promotion of Development and Distribution of Environmentally Friendly Automobiles".
4. Carbon Regulation for the maritime industry and aviation industry should be included:
The declared pathway focuses mostly on the electrification of land transport and does not mention carbon reduction plans for the maritime industry and aviation industry. In view of the increasingly stringent international carbon control for the maritime industry and aviation industry, the ROC government should propose specific coping strategies for the maritime industry and aviation industry.
5. SEA Policies to guide development behaviors:
Foreign direct investment in major projects in Taiwan has been accumulated to NT$1.7 trillion, but the investment review mechanism for electricity, water, waste and various pollutants is not clear and transparent, which may lead to environmental disputes, farmland pollution and even food safety crises. It is suggested that Taiwan urgently revise its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Act to incorporate climate change and carbon emissions into the review standards and initiate the relevant policies on Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and disclose energy, environment and resource information. On the other hand, this declared pathway lacks an integrated legal framework and supporting regulatory tools. For example, the EIA has not yet incorporated the thinking of National Land Use Planning or Spatial Planning Act.
6. Emphasis on environment and housing justice:
The widespread establishment of science parks will lead to the price hike of surrounding land and housing units, which will exacerbate difficulties for young people to buy houses or so-called housing injustice. If Taiwan does not actively face the environmental justice and housing justice, its pursuit of the goal of net zero transition may be the impossible.
7. Preparations for a just transition:
To ensure a just transition, the government has started to implement the carbon fee mechanism, but according to the experience of foreign countries, the way out is to impose energy tax and carbon tax, which not only curbs carbon emissions effectively, but has the double dividend effect of social redistribution at the same time. It is therefore suggested that carbon fee be imposed for the short term while energy tax (carbon tax) be collected in the medium term. This is the only way to effectively restrain carbon emissions and drive innovation. Accordingly, a just transition fund must be established for social redistribution. It is proposed that a Just Transition Commission, modelled on Scotland, be set up to deal with climate change and the well-being of its stakeholders.
Mobilization of net zero transitional society and its participatory governance network
1. Lack of inventory on the net zero issues:
It is suggested that Singapore's experience in net zero carbon emissions be taken into account: that is to say, not only is the grand strategic vision behind the scenario proposed, but the inventory of risks and challenges of net zero transformation be conducted in priority, so as to help goal management, risk management and citizen communication after the pathway is proposed.
2. Urgent need for participatory governance:
In this declared pathway, although some of the net zero working groups have participated in the communication, most of them focus on the communication with and coordination of the industries. Meanwhile, there is a considerable insufficiency of dialogue with academia and NGOs in terms of the technical pathway planning which involves the pathway blueprints, policies, and implementation schedules. After the declaration of this pathway, participatory governance should be strengthened in the future, incorporating social and democratic network energy, expanding social participation in mobilizing the net zero transition, and linking all the capacity from the government, the industries, and the private sector.
3. Social communication and participatory R&D for net zero transition:
The net zero transition requires not only forward-looking scientific research and industrial promotion of energy, power grid, energy storage, and negative carbon technology, but also the development of a diversified, multi-level, plural, and networked communication platform for transitional actions. The Ministry of Science and Technology is urgently required to invest in the forward-looking and action-oriented research for its risk management and communication under the framework of social sciences.
The Risk Society and Policy Research Center, National Taiwan University
April 1, 2022
