Venue: International Conference Hall, Tsai Lecture Hall(霖澤館), College of Law, National Taiwan University (1st Floor)
Date: 12th November, 2019
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The Risk Society and Policy Research Center (RSPRC) launched our flagship report this month (November 2019), 'Taiwan in Transformation: Initiating a Long-Term Energy Transition', to provide recommendations on the long-term strategies that Taiwan needs to undertake for its long-term energy transition. To launch the report, a media conference and forum was held on 11 November 2019 to introduce the report.
This is the second part of a five-part article which compiles the summary of the event.
Opening Speech by Prof. Hung-Jen Wang
National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Social Science Dean Prof. Hung-Jen Wang opened the forum by highlighting the role that the RSPRC plays in energy transition in Taiwan. He also emphasized that the RSPRC plays an important role in translating scientific research into ideas that could be communicated with the public.
Prof. Wang also thanked the research team led by RSPRC Lead Principal Investigator Prof. Kuei-Tien Chou and Director Prof. Kuo-Hui Chang who headed the research team at the RSPRC to produce the 'Taiwan in Transformation' report – a report comparable to a white paper on energy transition, he said. We at NTU are very proud to have a department like the RSPRC, Prof. Wang said.
Prof. Wang also pointed out that research the RSPRC does is not only focused on risk and energy communication, and that the RSPRC is also focused on conducting research for the benefit of future generations. Finally, Prof. Wang called on audience members and stakeholders to come onboard with the RSPRC to work together in Taiwan's energy transition for the betterment of future generations.
Special Lecture 1: Taiwan in Transformation – Initiating a Long-Term Energy Transition by Prof. Kuei-Tien Chou
RSPRC Lead Principal Investigator Prof. Kuei-Tien Chou gave the first special lecture at the forum, which provided a background to Taiwan's energy transition.
Prof. Chou explained that Taiwan's energy transition is confronted by triple-helix pressures: while there is horizontal pressure from the public for greater energy democracy and citizen participation in energy decision-making, especially with regard to demands for lower air pollution and less polluting industries, as well as the vertical pressure from the requirements of global conventions to abide by international targets, Taiwan is also faced with high-carbon and highly energy intensive industries, which therefore creates competing demands in Taiwan's energy governance.
Prof. Chou also pointed out that East Asia is characterized by high-carbon societies, with China topping the world in carbon emissions with 9838.754 MtCO2 of CO2 emissions, and Japan following close behind at fifth place with 1205.0612 MtCO2 of emissions, and with South Korea ranking seventh with 616.0967 MtCO2 of emissions. When comparing with countries with populations of over 10 million people, Taiwan also ranks 8th in terms of per capital carbon emissions in the world. In addition, Taiwan's temperature has been rising since the start of the 20th century, and asked whether there is a need to change the way humans interact with the environment, in order to give future generations a chance to thrive.
Climate change has therefore become the new systemic risk that Taiwan is facing, Prof. Chou said. He pointed out that Taiwan has become too accustomed to low prices, and while this creates a favorable environment for Taiwan's industries to create a flexible contract manufacturing model, it has led to issues. For example, low agricultural food prices have pushed farmers to use more fertilizers and pesticides which has resulted in food safety issues in Taiwan today. In addition, the low wages as well as low water and electricity prices have also led to an over-reliance by businesses on a low-cost model thereby leading to a lack of innovation. There is therefore a lack of competition which could drive industries towards higher-value production. The over-dependence on cheap electricity prices has therefore resulted in high energy usage, leading to Taiwan's economic development languishing on a brown economic model. Meanwhile, while Taiwan has become an aging society and needs to therefore import talent, talent are not drawn to Taiwan but are more attracted by countries like Singapore or South Korea, because of the stagnant wages resulting from Taiwan's low-cost model and sustained by Taiwan's industries.
Prof. Chou added that the global society today has embarked on the 4th industrial revolution, but this is one which is based on human-centered development, and the digital transformation involving technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT) and 3D printing, which would also require an environment that is human-friendly for development. However, because Taiwan has created a reputation of being a low-cost hub, this would not work favorably towards human-centered development and Taiwan would therefore need to build up its national branding and national competitiveness, if it were to develop a different reputation. Prof. Chou pointed out that Taiwanese companies therefore need to reflect on whether they want to transform their business models. Essentially, Taiwan would not be able to compete in the 4th industrial revolution if it continues using a brown economic model, and there is therefore a need for in-depth discussions on how Taiwan should continue to approach issues such as on population, the environment, climate and energy.
Next, Prof. Chou outlined the energy use by Taiwan's industries. He pointed out that since 1990, the industrial sector has contributed to the highest carbon emissions in Taiwan.
And among the industrial sector, the petrochemical industry was the largest contributor to carbon emissions.
Prof. Chou pointed out that while the petrochemical industry used to contribute more greatly to Taiwan's economy, this has changed and the information and communications technology (ICT) industry has since taken over. In addition, while emissions from the petrochemical industry have been high (red line in chart below), its contribution to GDP has not been increasing (red dotted line). On the other hand, even as emissions from the ICT industry has been increasing (blue line), its contributions to GDP has also been increasing (blue dotted line).
Nonetheless, Prof. Chou also pointed out that the energy needs of the ICT industry has also been increasing (light blue line in chart below).
Still, Prof. Chou pointed out that while the GDP per unit of energy use for the ICT industry has been increasing (orange line in the chart below), it has remained stagnant for the petrochemical industry (grey line), and that Taiwan therefore needs to undergo industrial transformation to reduce its reliance on high-carbon industries.
Prof. Chou also pointed out that there is a global shift towards a low-carbon economy and energy transition has therefore becomes a means by which to create a new energy economy based on improved energy efficiency. In fact, there are 65 countries, 87 companies and more than 100 cities that have committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and 13 countries that have developed long-term strategies to achieve the climate goals outlined under the Paris Agreement. New European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, has proposed the European Green Deal in September 2019, which aims for the European Union (EU) to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and an implementing a carbon border tax. 200 RE100 companies in 140 markets globally have also pledged to commit to using 100% renewable energy.
At the time of the talk, there were only seven Taiwanese companies which have established internal carbon pricing, and only three Taiwanese companies which have joined RE100's initiative to commit to using 100% renewable energy, and only two which have joined EP100's initiative to commit to improving energy productivity, as well as only 15 companies which have joined Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) to provide voluntary and consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures, with only nine which have joined Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) to adopt science-based targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Additionally, among G20 countries, their renewable energy use has gone up to above 10%, or even 20% or 30% of their energy mixes. And even in Asian countries, such as Japan, Thailand, China, India, Indonesia and South Korea, their renewable energy generation has also surpassed Taiwan.
Moreover, the majority of the top 10 worst polluters in Taiwan are related to the Formosa Plastics Corporation which dabbles predominantly in petrochemicals.
A bright spot is that within our university, the Graduate Institute of National Development Building has also become the third building within the NTU to install solar panels on its rooftop, Prof. Chou announced.
Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic (center), Executive Director of The World in 2050 (TWI2050) initiative, during a visit to the RSPRC, with Prof. Kuei-Tien Chou (left), posing next to the solar panels on the rooftop of the Graduate Institute of National Development Building.
Pointing to international trends, Prof. Chou pointed out that if Taiwan does not take the necessary preventive measures and continues on a brown economic model, Taiwan will be heavily impacted, and this is a threat that Taiwan can therefore not run away from. However, the question is whether Taiwanese businesses and Taiwanese are ready to overhaul Taiwan's developmental model. He highlighted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that when including for external costs, Taiwan's fossil fuels subsidies would have amounted to NT$1.1 trillion in 2015, and the external costs of carbon and air pollution of Taiwan's power generation system also amounted to NT$300 billion in 2018.
In terms of public awareness among Taiwanese, Prof. Chou also pointed out that the general public still does not have an adequate understanding of Taiwan's energy transition. A survey conducted by the RSPRC last year and another one conducted this year by the Taiwan Institute for Sustainable Energy (TAISE) showed that there were still respectively 67% and 61% of Taiwanese who do not know Taiwan's main source of power generation.
TAISE's survey also showed that misconceptions continue to remain high, with 67% of Taiwanese who believed that Taiwan will face electricity shortages. However, However, 73% of Taiwanese said that they would be willing to support a nuclear-free homeland if electricity adequacy could be assured. Prof. Chou also added that the energy conversation should not be focused on the energy types that Taiwan should adopt (nuclear vs. renewables). Rather, the conversation should be elevated to one of whether Taiwan should focus on low- or high-carbon economic development.
Prof. Chou further shared that the RSPRC's surveys in 2012, 2015 and 2018 have all found that more than 60% of Taiwanese would be willing to pay higher prices in order to support the development of renewable energy as a replacement of nuclear energy, though there was a slight dip in support in 2018. Therefore, Taiwan's energy transition should empower citizens to enable them with the power to generate electricity, as is the growing practice around the world, instead of leaving the power of electricity generation in the hands of companies.
However, while Taiwan's government has been proactive in introducing legislation to tackle climate change, the actual implementation has been marred by delays. For example, under the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act, while the Greenhouse Gas Emission Control Action Programs were to be implemented from 2018 to 2020, the programs were only finally launched on October 3, 2018. Also, while the Greenhouse Gas Control Implementation Plan was to be implemented from 2018 to 2020, the plan was only approved on May 16, 2019. In addition, while the National Adaptation Action Plan to Climate Change 2018-2022 was to be implemented from 2018 to 2022, the plan was only rectified on September 9, 2019. One of the reasons for the delays is due to Taiwan's overall governance structure not being responsive enough, and because Taiwan lacks governance integration at the local and national level. However, a coordinating department, such as the Bureau of Energy, which could provide oversight over the others would allow for better integration, Prof. Chou pointed out.
As such, Taiwan's Executive Yuan executive branch needs to adopt a whole-of-government approach in coordinating climate change decision making. To this end, a climate change cabinet could be set up under the Executive Yuan to provide oversight over the different sectors, such as the transportation and industrial sectors. An independent climate change committee involving representatives from different sectors should also be set up under the Office of the President, to look into meeting the targets for 2030 and beyond. A citizen's climate conference should also be set up to look into the social impact issues, such as on how energy tax would impact on the low-income. Ultimately, it is important to develop a vision for energy transition, Prof. Chou reiterated.
The United Kingdom (UK)'s Climate Change Act could be an example for Taiwan to follow, under which a Committee on Climate Change was set up to provide independent advice to the government on climate change and emissions targets. The enactment of the Climate Change Act, the UK has successfully undergone its energy transition, where coal-fired power has declined from 43.0% of the country's energy mix to less than 5% today, and the proportion of renewable energy has increased from about 5% to about 30% today. Another example to follow could be Germany's Climate Action Law, with a similar accompanying German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU), which similarly conducts research on climate change to provide independent recommendations to the government. Prof. Chou also pointed to the flagship report, 'World in Transition – A Social Contract for Sustainability', launched by the WBGU in 2011, which detailed the actions Germany needed to take for its industrial development if it were to achieve its climate targets by 2050. In addition, the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project (DDPP) also developed a global vision towards decarbonization, and The World in 2050 (TWI2050) initiative under the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has also developed a framework for achieving the sustainable development goals.
This year, the RSPRC has also released the 'Taiwan in Transformation' report which came out with six recommendations, each with near-term targets to be achieved by 2025, as well as medium-term and long-term targets to be achieved by 2050.
The six recommendations are:
- Adoption of participatory governance innovation
- Internalization of external costs
- Creation of a sustainable electricity market
- Strengthening of local energy governance
- Prioritization of industrial energy conservation
- Acceleration of green capital flows
Since the Renewable Energy Development Act was passed in 2009, Taiwan's renewable energy has only grown to 5.56% of the energy mix by 2019, but Prof. Chou pointed out that this development has been too slow.
The targets that Taiwan has currently set aims to reduce coal-fired power to 27%, as well as increase natural gas to 50% and renewable energy to 20% of the energy mix. However, there is still room for improvement, Prof. Chou said.
Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s most conservative estimate showed that renewable energy will increase to a point where it will comprise as much of the energy mix as coal-fired power by 2024. Nuclear energy generation has also been on the decline, while the cost of nuclear energy generation has been rising. Meanwhile, the cost of renewables has been declining, while solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy installation has also been increasing.
Comparing with global trends, Prof. Chou surmised that in order for Taiwan to successfully undergo energy transition, it is therefore necessary for Taiwan to adopt the six recommendations laid out in the 'Taiwan in Transformation' report. Taiwan's political parties would also need to focus on developing a new vision of economic development for Taiwan, and to move away from the brown economic model. Prof. Chou added that Taiwan is currently faced with an opportune time for development, and it is important to combine the integration of local, regional and global developments to advance Taiwan's energy transition.
United Kingdom's Climate Policy and Green Economy by British Office Taipei Deputy Representative Andrew Pittam
The next speaker was British Office Taipei Deputy Representative Andrew Pittam, who provided an overview of the UK's climate change strategies. He explained that climate questions have increasingly become a core part of the UK's diplomacy, pointing to two key moments in which climate change became the focal point of the UK's diplomacy, the first at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference (also known as the Copenhagen Summit) which created an urgency for countries to do more for climate change, and the second of which is the momentum that has been built up by Swedish youth environmental activist Greta Thunberg since 2018, which is also increasing pressure on the UK and the world to act more urgently on climate change.
Deputy Representative Pittam also shared a video he took of the Formosa 1 offshore wind farm off the coast of Taiwan's Miaoli, which was inaugurated on the same day as the forum. He added that even though Taiwan currently ranks low on the renewables table, it has great potential to grow into a regional hub for offshore wind in Asia, especially because Taiwan is ahead of the game relative to other regional countries.
#Taiwan's offshore wind development is now very real as authorities aim for 5.5 GW of wind #energy by 2025. Video shows #onshore wind farms on left moving to new #offshore Formosa 1 development on right. #renewableenergy @Macquarie @GreenInvGroup pic.twitter.com/gfCGW6E4V6
— Andrew Pittam (@atpittam) 2019年11月9日
Deputy Representative Pittam next talked about the UK's Climate Change Act 2008, of which a goal has been set for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and under which the Committee on Climate Change was set up to monitor progress on the climate targets and efforts by industries and companies in going green. The Climate Change Act was enacted due to growing pressure for the UK to do more, and it has become a key piece of legislation that underpins the UK government's commitment to climate change. While the initial target set under the act was for a 60% greenhouse gas emission reduction below 1990 levels by 2050, this was later increased to 80% and now to 100% due to pressure from NGOs and other groups. EU discussions also fed back to the targets, primarily via the '20-20-20' climate and energy targets, which require 20% greenhouse gas emission reduction below 1990 levels by 2020, an increase of renewable energy to 20% of total energy consumption by 2020, and a 20% reduction in energy consumption by 2020.
Under the act, the UK has also set five five-yearly carbon budgets from 2008 to 2032, and the carbon budgets that would need to be reduced until 2032. The UK is currently in its third budget, and it has already reached the targets in the first two budgets, of 25% and 31% emission reductions below 1990 levels.
In effect, the committee plays an important role in not only providing independent advice and recommendations to the government, but in also monitoring the progress of the climate targets and holding the government accountable, Deputy Representative Pittam explained. It was set up as an independent statutory board, and even though the initial plan was for the committee to oblige the government to take into account climate change in policymaking, it was later amended for the committee to play the role of making recommendations to the government instead. Members of the committee come from academia, business, NGOs, as well as engineers, and are supposed to represent a range of expertise which therefore also provided useful contacts to the various sectors to help provide the committee with input. The board is also jointly sponsored by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the devolved governments. Fundamentally, the committee's role is to prepare the UK for the impact of climate change.
On the net-zero target that has been set, the target was developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s key recommendations that emissions would need to fall to net zero by 2050. On the other hand, the UK has also assessed that net zero emissions by 2050 is also the minimum requirement that needs to be met if it were to fulfil its commitments to the Paris Agreement. Nonetheless, the UK has also assessed that it would still be able to continue to grow its economy even with a net zero target, and not only that, would be able to do so in a cost-effective manner.
Deputy Representative Pittam also highlighted that the industrial sector is a key sector that the committee works with, primarily the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), or the equivalent of Taiwan's Chinese National Federation of Industries (CNFI). He pointed out that CBI plays a key role in the policy recommendations announced by the government, and quoted the CBI as saying that "UK business stands squarely behind the Government's commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 [which …] is the right response to the global climate crisis, and firms are ready to play their part in combating it". In addition, CBI also says that while businesses are willing to play their part in mitigating climate change, they also require government support and "clear pathways to enable investment in low-carbon technologies, and [that] it is vital that there is cross-government coordination on the policies and regulation needed to deliver a clean future."
Deputy Representative Pittam also highlighted renewable energy success stories in the UK, such as that of Drax, one of the largest power stations in the UK. While Drax was completely reliant on coal to generate electricity, it has since 10 to 20 years ago reduced its reliant on coal and has transformed to be a power station predominantly run on biomass, as well as by using revolutionary technologies to capture carbon.
To encourage companies to think of the impact they have on the environment, Deputy Representative Pittam explained that the UK is requiring companies to calculate their contributions to global warming and make climate-related financial risk disclosures by 2022, in line with the recommendations made by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). He added that during the launch of the initiative, the governor of the Bank of England also urged companies to make such disclosures as soon as possible, otherwise which they would be forced to do so by the two-year deadline. Even so, Deputy Representative Pittam said that companies would likely be already taking steps in reflecting on how their actions would affect their ability to operate, because younger generations of consumers in the next three to five years would likely make consumer decisions based on the decisions companies make about the environment.
Finally, Deputy Representative Pittam shared statistics to show the effectiveness of the UK's renewable energy strategy: coal-fired power has declined massively in the UK's energy mix, and renewable energy has on the other hand increased, such that the UK today has the largest offshore wind power capacity in the world today.
In addition, while the UK's greenhouse gas emissions have been on the decline, its economy has still continued to grow, which represents a powerful symbol on how the economy can continue to grow even as emissions are being reduced.
The Challenges and Development Strategies of Taiwan's Energy Transition by Dr. Hom-Ti Lee
Dr. Hom-Ti Lee, Deputy General Director of the Green Energy and Environment Laboratories (GEL) at the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), was next to give his speech on the local energy transition in Taiwan. Dr. Lee began his talk by highlighting that the discussion on energy transition should not be done by staking out different positions, but rather by conducting discussions on the basis of cooperation.
He pointed out that while there are 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), only three of these goals are more relevant to energy transition: SDG 6, 7 and 13. In addition, while SDG7 is focused on 'Affordable and Clean Energy', most of the discussion, he said, has focused on the "clean" aspect of energy, but not on its affordability. However, big companies are more concerned about affordability when assessing the potential of green energy, Dr. Lee said. He added that renewable energies are also not fully understood – for example, biomass is a form of renewable energy, but it also produces CO2 like coal-fired power, he said.
In addition, while there is the perception that Taiwan's government is not doing enough for energy transition, he said that the government has been looking at the issue from a holistic perspective. Taiwan also faces challenges because it has only one power company and one power grid, Dr. Lee said. He also pointed out that while Taiwan has often been compared with South Korea, the latter has undertaken a different path towards promoting renewable energy: South Korea has previously used Feed-in Tariffs (FIT) to promote renewable energy development, but it has since switched to using the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), and these two systems would have differing impacts and benefits to companies.
On solar energy, Dr. Lee pointed out that Taiwan faces challenges on the availability of land for development, though for the first time in 2018, Taiwan had produced more than 1GW of solar energy. In addition, the target for 2019 has been set for 1.5GW while for 2020, a 2GW target has been set. Dr. Lee also pointed out that while development of wind energy in Taiwan has been fast-paced, Taiwan has yet to develop adequate infrastructure and a supply chain. Nonetheless, the perception is that investing in offshore wind energy is the right thing to do for Taiwan and it should therefore take advantage of the opportunity to quickly develop a supply chain, he said. However, given the pace of development in South Korea, this has given added pressure to Taiwan.
In order to promote industrial renewable energy, Dr. Lee also pointed out that it is necessary to provide a support package for businesses, such as those in the electronics industry. He said that the ITRI therefore plays a role in bringing the government and businesses together. In addition, he pointed to a survey which found that more than 50% of Taiwanese were not aware that over 98% of Taiwan's energy is imported, and therefore emphasized on the importance of fundamental energy knowledge, and the role that the ITRI has played in facilitating renewable energy awareness among the general public. Additionally, the ITRI also provides data for local governments in their planning for renewable energy, he added.
Dr. Lee also updated that the ITRI's Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratories at the Shalun Smart Green Energy Science City would be completed in December 2019. The laboratories will be conducting research on advanced energy technologies, as well as serve as a demonstration site for technologies in energy efficiency, energy storage, energy conservation and system integration.
In conclusion, Dr. Lee pointed out that while issues such as the circular economy and energy conservation are important, strategies would need to be developed to implement them. In addition, both AI and IoT development as well as energy transition need to take place concurrently, and an effective method for carbon reduction should be found to enable development in these areas. Finally, he said that the ITRI does not adopt singular perspectives when making considerations about Taiwan's energy use, and while there are concerns over the use of nuclear energy, nuclear should be seen as an alternative to coal-fired power.
Panel Discussion
In the panel discussion that followed, Deputy Representative Pittam explained that even though the UK's Committee on Climate Change plays only an advisory role to the government, the government nonetheless takes its advice seriously. One reason for this is because the committee has been set up as a statutory board as well as an expert body made up of experts from various fields, which therefore provide realistic recommendations. It is also precisely because the committee members include people from different sectors that it makes it even more politically difficult for the government to ignore. The government is also under immense pressure to take up these recommendations because of public opinion, which has become influential and powerful not only in the UK but in Europe as well, he said. At the same time, businesses are also on board with the government's policy directions because on the one hand, the government recognizes that industries face difficulties and challenges in decarbonizing and has therefore responded to the regulatory demands of businesses as well as provided research and development (R&D) funds to support industries, but on the other hand, businesses also realize that they cannot "get away with it" because while businesses are being held accountable by the government, consumers and public opinion also hold sway, thereby ensuring compliance from businesses.
Prof. Chou then responded by agreeing that Germany's energy transition has also been similarly successful due to public pressure. Pointing back to Taiwan, he added that it is therefore necessary for energy transition to become mainstreamed. He reiterated that Taiwan should also set up an independent committee on climate change similar to the UK and Germany, which would be able to conduct independent reviews of climate policies, as well as provide recommendations less shackled by corporate pressure.
Responding to a question on whether Taiwan's current climate strategy will enable it to be able to achieve the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Dr. Lee explained that while the ITRI has conducted projections via looking at the energy demands of different sectors including various factors such as the increase in energy use that could be attributed to electric vehicles, as well as from the contributions from energy conservation, it has found that Taiwan's current strategy would not enable it to achieve the NDCs. However, Dr. Lee said that he was unable to share data on the projections because of the sensitivity of the data coming from the ITRI. He added that if the ITRI has used inaccurate data in its projections, it would make the necessary changes.
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Links to Other Sections:
Part 1: Media Conference: Launch of the Taiwan in Transformation Report
Part 3: Breakout Session 1: Innovation in Energy Governance
Part 4: Breakout Session 2: Implementation of the Industrial Energy Efficiency First Principle
Part 5: Special Lecture 2: Achievements and Challenges of Taiwan's Energy Transition
Article Links to Other Sections Videos Slides Download Photos
Opening Speech by Prof. Hung-Jen Wang
Special Lecture 1: Taiwan in Transformation – Initiating a Long-Term Energy Transition by Prof. Kuei-Tien Chou
United Kingdom's Climate Policy and Green Economy by British Office Taipei Deputy Representative Andrew Pittam
The Challenges and Development Strategies of Taiwan's Energy Transition by Dr. Hom-Ti Lee
Panel Discussion
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