Professor Sir Brian Hoskins visited our research center for an academic exchange on 14 May 2019, where we exchanged learnings about the climate change policies in the United Kingdom and Taiwan. Prof. Sir Hoskins is the chairperson at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment at the Imperial College London, and Professor of Meteorology at the University of Reading. The exchange was kindly organized by the British Office Taipei.
Figure 1: Professor Sir Brian Hoskins (center), in a photo with our center researchers, British Office Taipei Head of Economy and Prosperity Michael Watters (to his left), our Center Chief Director Kuei-Tien Zhou and Executive Director Kuo-Hui Chang (to his right)
Our Center Chief Director Professor Kuei-Tien Chou started the session by explaining the situation Taiwan is facing. He highlighted that the brown economy model in Taiwan has placed roadblocks in Taiwan's energy transition, as some businesses continue to adopt an old energy-intensive model in their operations, thereby preventing climate change policies from being effectively implemented. Prof. Chou also pointed out that real climate governance is a challenge faced by many Asian countries, which are confronted with similar problems associated with the brown economy.
Figure 2: Our Center Chief Director Kuei-Tien Zhou giving the opening address
Michael Watters, Head of Economy and Prosperity at the British Office Taipei, said that the United Kingdom and Taiwan share many similarities, as they are both islands with industries along the coast, and are both working on developing offshore wind industry. In this respect, the UK and Taiwan therefore has much to learn from each another. He also highlighted the role that the British Office Taipei can play, to act as a bridge to promote further research collaboration between the Risk and Society Policy Research Center, and the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment.
Figure 3: British Office Taipei Head of Economy and Prosperity Michael Watters sharing the UK's perspective of climate change development
How the United Kingdom Made Its Climate Change Policy Effective
Prof. Hoskins shared that the United Kingdom (UK) passed its Climate Change Act in 2008. Due to strong cross-party agreement, only 5 parliamentarians had voted against it, while the rest voted for it. Prof. Hoskins also shared that the effectiveness of UK's Climate Change Act is in how it commits the UK to a five-yearly Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA), from which a National Adaptation Plan has to also be developed every 5 years. Under the Act, UK is also legally required to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The Act also requires 5-yearly carbon budgets to be set, for a period of 10 to 15 years ahead, and as a sign of UK's forward planning, carbon budgets have already been set out to 2032.
As part of this act, the Committee on Climate Change was also set up as an independent body to provide independent analysis and recommend carbon budgets, based on internationally-agreed climate targets and global scenarios. The importance of the committee's role can be seen in how all its recommendations for the five carbon budgets have thus far been approved by parliament. Importantly, the committee is made up of experts who come from a wide range of professions, including engineers, academics and social scientists.
Figure 4: Professor Sir Brian Hoskins giving his talk on UK's climate change policy
Prof. Hoskins explained that in order to meet UK's carbon budgets, UK has adopted the following broad policies: 1) support low-cost and cost effective measures, 2) adopt consistent policies that are followed through, 3) commit to effective regulation and strict enforcement, and 4) long-term planning. He also underlined the statistical data showing the progress the UK has made in tackling climate change, which has seen a decoupling between GDP growth and greenhouse gas emissions.
Figure 5: UK's GDP and greenhouse gas emissions have decoupled
Source: UK's Committee on Climate Change's 2018 Progress Report to Parliament
In addition, Prof. Hoskins also highlighted that the cost for offshore wind construction has been declining, as the UK develops greater expertise in producing them. In fact, these declines have been even faster than the UK had expected. The same trend is seen in the cost for the battery packs used in electric vehicles, which has also seen costs come down. Prof. Hoskins pointed out that at the rate that the costs of renewables are declining, they are expected to become more cost-effective than fossil fuels, and would give countries which decide to embark on renewable energy development today a first mover advantage.
On nuclear energy, Prof. Hoskins pointed out that nuclear power stations in UK have become increasingly expensive to build. In addition, the UK also faces a similar situation as with other countries, in that the costs for the recent construction of a nuclear power plant was many times the initial cost estimates. Moreover, the issue of how nuclear waste should be dealt with still exists.
Prof. Hoskins also highlighted that the UK public has also shown support for UK's climate change policies, pointing to a recent survey which showed that the majority of the British voters were supportive of making it legally binding for the UK to commit to zero carbon emissions by 2050. He added that climate change movements such as the youth-led Extinction Rebellion inspired by Swedish youth Greta Thunberg, also play an important role in putting pressure on governments, on the need to act on climate change. On the other hand, he specified that the role of the UK's Climate Change Committee is to provide the analytical analysis to come out with a feasible roadmap to achieve the targets.
Figure 6 (from left to right): British Office Taipei Head of Economy and Prosperity Michael Watters, Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, Chief Director Kuei-Tien Zhou and Executive Director Kuo-Hui Chang
What Taiwan Can Learn from UK's Experience
On what Taiwan can learn from UK's experience, Prof. Hoskin highlighted that from his experience in the UK, it is important that the government implements policies that give businesses the confidence to invest. The government would not engender confidence if it were to introduce a policy but later pull back from it, and it is therefore necessary for the government to commit to strict carbon reduction and regulations. Moreover, because UK had also faced resistance from traditional industries in energy transition, it is important to encourage more new companies to join in energy transition, and they would also be able to act as a counterweight to the old lobby, once there are enough new businesses to cross the threshold of support.
Prof. Hoskins also shared that an important rationale for the development of renewable energy is that energy security is important, and generating energy locally would therefore be more secure than importing energy from outside the country. With regard to concerns over higher electricity prices, Prof Hoskins explained that with the costs for renewable energy development coming down, energy is not going to become more expensive but might instead become cheaper, and it is therefore a win-win solution to develop renewables. Also, workers in the coal industry possess skills that are required in the renewable energy industry as well, such as in the areas of carbon capture and the electric grid, and workers in the coal industry could therefore be reskilled to adapt their expertise in in the renewables industry, thereby creating jobs.
Finally, Prof. Hoskins pointed out that the UK had become a global economic leader during the industrial revolution by using fossil fuels, however, it has not caught up fast enough in renewable energy development. Therefore, it is also a moral responsibility for the UK to embark on just transition to protect its local communities.