Open Energy

Author / Yi-Yang Wang, Assistant Researcher, RSPRC.
David Walther, Postdoctoral Fellow, RSPRC.
Energy System Analysis Research Group, RSPRC.

Graphics / Cheng-En Lin. & Heng Liu, Research Assistant, RSPRC

Since 2016, it has been five years since the RSPRC released the "Taiwan's Energy Situation Review". Through the collection of basic data on Taiwan's energy structure, it provides references for all walks of life and grasps the development of Taiwan's energy situation. The development of the energy situation in 2020 did not continue the transition achievements in energy consumption, carbon reduction, and electrification of transportation equipment in 2019. Most of the performances were flat or slightly degraded; in 2020, Taiwan was originally expected to adopt "green recovery" taking the opportunity, combining climate change, global epidemics and air pollution to promote the mainstreaming of climate and carbon reduction policies, but the result can only be said to be a great deal of space for improvement.

Reviewing several energy data for 2020, some indicators are in line with the progress of the policy plan, including: the progress of the energy transition of replacing coal with gas, the decline in energy intensity, and the achievement of phased goals for the electrification of transportation equipment. However, there are also a number of indicators that are developing in the opposite direction of the energy transition, such as the decline in renewable energy power generation, the growth of energy consumption across Taiwan, and the performance of electric locomotives that have not reached the staged target.

In addition, although the low-voltage smart meters that have fallen behind in previous years are expected to complete the 1 million households planned by Taipower in 2020, the target is actually only 7% of the low-voltage households in Taiwan. It still needs to be caught up to meet the future demand response of Taiwan. Smart grid infrastructure needs such as energy management.

Overall, in 2021, Taiwan is facing three major opportunities to strengthen its climate governance solutions, including the launch of the second phase of the greenhouse gas emission control action plan, the development of a net-zero carbon emission path, and the revision of the greenhouse gas reduction and management laws. It should face up to 2020. In order to implement more ambitious energy transition strategies in order to implement various key indicators in the year.

1. Taiwan's power generation structure and the proportion of renewable energy power generation types in 2020

• In 2020, the total power generation will reach a new high. The power generation will increase by 2.09% compared with 2019, an increase of approximately 5.734 billion kWh. Among them, gas increased by up to 9.57%, coal decreased by 0.38%, and fuel oil decreased by 25.47%; renewable energy power generation decreased by 0.84%, and nuclear energy decreased by 2.73% (Bureau of Energy, 2021a). Coal-fired power generation continued to decline in 2019, accounting for 45.02% of power generation (Bureau of Energy, 2021b). Compared with the 2020 power structure plan in the Energy Administration's "107 National Electricity Supply and Demand Report", the proportion of coal burning is close to the planned value, both at about 45% (Bureau of Energy, 2017).
• Gas-fired power generation increased by 9.57% compared with 2019, and its proportion increased from 33.26% to 35.70%. The overall gas-fired power generation declined slightly in 2019, but will grow significantly in 2020. The total power generation is 99.876 billion kWh, which is 8.722 billion kWh more than in 2019 (Bureau of Energy, 2021a).
• If we only estimate the power generation and purchase system of Taipower, since 2019, the proportion of gas-fired power generation has surpassed the proportion of coal-fired power generation, entering the first key golden cross of Taiwan's energy transition period. This trend will continue in 2020. According to the gross power generation data of Taipower in the monthly energy statistics report, gas-fired power generation accounted for 41.46% and coal-fired power generation accounted for 36.71% ^[1] (Bureau of Energy, 2021a).

Figure 1-1 2020 Taiwan power generation structure
Source: Bureau of Energy (2021b), drawn by research group 

 

 

• The proportion of renewable energy power generation will slightly decrease from 5.56% in 2019 to 5.40% in 2020, of which wind and solar photovoltaics account for 3% (Bureau of Energy, 2021b). However, even if solar photovoltaics grow by 2.072 billion kWh and wind power grows by 397 million kWh, the total power generation from renewable energy will still decrease by 128 million kWh (Bureau of Energy, 2021a). One of the main reasons for the decline in the proportion was the usual hydroelectric power generation, which was affected by insufficient rainfall and poor water supply, which dropped by 2.523 billion degrees, a record low since 2002. In addition, compared with the 2020 power structure plan in the Energy Administration’s "107 National Electricity Supply and Demand Report", the power generation of renewable energy is 9.78 billion kWh lower than the target , and the proportion is obviously less than 9% of the target. (Bureau of Energy, 2019: 9) ^[2]. It means that the average annual growth rate of renewable energy power generation in the next five years will be increased to 61.6% to reach the planned value of 2025 for renewable energy to account for 20% and power generation to reach 61.7 billion kWh (Bureau of Energy, 2019: 9; Bureau of Energy, 2021a).
• In terms of the development of solar photovoltaics, the original "109 photovoltaic 6.5GW plan" to 2020 solar photovoltaic installation capacity needs to reach 6.5GW (Office of Energy and Carbon Reduction, EY, 2019: 5). However, according to the monthly energy statistics report, as of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity has only reached 5.82GW, which has not reached the expected target (Bureau of Energy, 2020e). However, the current plan still maintains that the cumulative set target for solar photovoltaics in 2025 is 20GW. Due to the high pressure on the development of ground-based photovoltaics, the target is raised to 8GW for rooftops and 12GW for ground-based photovoltaics (孫文臨，2021b).
• Wind power generation increased by 21% compared to 2019, and power generation increased by 397 million kWh (Bureau of Energy, 2021a). The cumulative installed capacity of land-based wind turbines in 2020 is 0.73 GW, which is 1.2 GW from the 2025 installation capacity target set by the Ministry of Economic Affairs Announcement of the 140th Renewable Energy Promotion Target, which is still about 0.47 GW (Executive Yuan, 2019 ; Bureau of Energy, 2021e). As for the part of offshore wind turbines, the installation capacity is the same as last year, at 0.13GW, which is a gap of 5.61GW (ibid.) from the 5.74GW set capacity target for 2025 installations. From 2021-2025, more offshore wind farms are expected to come online one after another, hoping to fill this gap.
• In 2020, gas-fired power generation will increase by 9.57%. In comparison, both renewable energy and nuclear power generation will decrease. Renewable energy power generation will decrease by 127 million kWh compared with last year, while nuclear power generation will be reduced by 883 million kWh (Bureau of Energy, 2021a; Bureau of Energy, 2021b).

 

2. Trends in energy consumption across Taiwan

Policy goal

　　The overall energy consumption policy target is mainly based on the evaluation indicators of the "Greenhouse Gas Emission Control Action Plan" proposed by various departments. Based on past observations, the main sources of energy consumption are the "industrial sector" and the "non-energy consumption" sector, and the proportion of both consumption is About 60% (Energy Information Group, RSPRC, 2020). Regarding energy intensity, according to the schedule and target of the Energy Transition White Paper "Energy Conservation Goals and Path Planning" approved in 2018, the average annual energy intensity needs to be improved to 2.4% from 2017 to 2025 (Bureau of Energy, 2018c; Bureau of Energy, 2020a: 43)

Trend analysis

Table 2-1 Comparison of changes in energy consumption across Taiwan in 2019 and 2020 (unit/10,000 kloe)

	Energy sector's own consumption	Industrial sector	Transportation sector	Agricultural sector	Service sector	Residential sector	Non-energy use sector	Total (per million oil equivalent)
Energy Consumption In 2019	746.92	2671.71	1340.17	83.36	579.8	657.18	2411.66	8490.8
Energy Consumption In 2020	705.99	2684.1	1350.76	78.8	580.91	691.79	2444.03	8536.38
Growth Rate of Energy Consumption in 2020	-5.48%↓	0.46%↑	0.79%↑	-5.47%↓	0.19%↑	5.27%↑	1.34%↑	0.54%↑
ncreased (or Decreased) Consumption	-40.93	12.39	10.59	-4.56	1.11	34.61	32.37	45.58
Growth Contribution	-89.8%	27.18%	23.23%	-10%	2.44%	75.93%	71.02%
Share of energy consumption in 2020	8.27%	31.44%	15.82%	0.92%	6.81%	8.1%	28.63%

Source: Bureau of Energy,2021f

 

Figure 2-1 Historical trend of energy intensity (2016-2020)
Source: Bureau of Energy, 2021g 

 

 

3. The trend of electricity consumption in Taiwan

Policy goal  

• Among the electricity consumption, the industrial sector is the bulk, accounting for about 55.56%. In addition, the service sector accounts for 17.06%, and the residential sector accounts for 18.52%. The three accounts for more than 90% of Taiwan’s overall electricity consumption (Bureau of Energy, 2021e). Therefore, discussions on power consumption trends mainly focus on the greenhouse gas reduction policies and related strategies in these three sectors.
• According to the estimated electricity consumption in the "Energy Sector Greenhouse Gas Emission Control Action Plan (Phase 1) Approved Version", the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption from 2016 to 2020 is 0.72% (Bureau of Energy, 2018). However, according to the historical electricity consumption data in the Monthly Energy Statistics Report, the actual average annual growth rate of electricity consumption from 2016 to 2020 is about 1.23%^[3], which is much higher than expected.
• According to the goal of the "Smart Grid Master Plan", a total of 1 million households in 2020 and 3 million households in 2024 need to build low-voltage smart meter systems (Bureau of Energy, 2020: 31-32). According to Taipower, at present, high-voltage users such as factories and commercial places with large electricity consumption have all installed smart meters in 102, a total of 24,624 households; there are about 13 million low-voltage users in Taiwan such as general households, which will be installed successively. In 2020, about one million households will complete the installation of smart meters (梁珮綺, 2020). (Editor's note: Statistics related to the construction of smart meters cannot be queried from the current public information of the government. The actual number of construction households and schedules are still based on Taipower’s press releases.)

 

Table 3-1 The change trend of Taiwan's electricity consumption in 2019 and 2020

	Energy sector's own consumption	Industry sector	Transportation sector	Agricultural sector	Service sector	Residential sector	Total (billion kwh)
Electricity Consumption In 2019	195.75	1475.43	14.93	30.45	467.43	471.89	2655.88
Electricity Consumption In 2020	193.01	1505.94	14.81	32.73	462.38	502.07	2710.94
Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption in 2020	-1.39%↓	2.07%↑	-0.8%↓	7.49%↑	-1.08%↓	6.4%↑	2.07%↑
Increased (or Decreased) Consumption	-2.73	30.51	-0.12	2.28	-5.05	30.18	55.06
Growth Contribution	-4.96%	55.41%	-0.22%	4.14%	-9.17%	54.81%
Share of energy consumption in 2020	7.12%	55.55%	0.55%	1.21%	17.06%	18.52%

Source: Bureau of Energy (2021h), tabulated for this study.

 

Trend analysis

• Compared with 2019, overall electricity consumption in 2020 will show a positive growth, reaching 2.07% (Bureau of Energy, 2021h).
  
• Compared with the power growth rate of -0.45% in 2019, the overall increase in power consumption is mainly due to the increase in the industrial, agricultural and residential sectors. Among them, the industrial sector increased by 3.051 billion kWh, which is the sector that increased the most power consumption, and the residential sector also An increase of 3.018 billion degrees (Bureau of Energy, 2021h).
• In terms of the proportion of electricity consumption, the industrial sector accounted for 55.55% of Taiwan’s electricity consumption, the service sector accounted for 17.06%, and the residential sector accounted for 18.52%. Among them, the power consumption of the industrial sector and the residential sector will grow in 2020 compared to last year, while the service sector has maintained a downward trend since 2019 (Bureau of Energy, 2021h)
• Chia-Wei Chao, Chairman of the Taiwan Environment and Planning Association (2021) pointed out that residential electricity consumption grew the most from January to October last year. In addition to the summer temperature hitting record highs, many people worked at home due to the COVID-19 epidemic, which led to residential air conditioning. Electricity increase (孫文臨, 2021a). That being said, the growth factor cannot be entirely attributed to the epidemic. From the residential sector, the growth rate in 2019 compared with the same period last year, and electricity consumption increased in six months compared with the previous year (Bureau of Energy, 2021h). This means that residential electricity consumption has been growing in the past two years, and the epidemic has been one of the main reasons for its growth. Since then, it is still necessary for the residential sector to implement corresponding measures to curb the growth of electricity consumption in the residential sector.

 

Table 3-2 Residential power consumption trends in the past three years (unit: 100 million kWh)

Month	2018	2019	Annual Increase rate	2020	Annual Increase rate
Jan	32.97	32.71	-0.79%	31.64	-3.28%
Feb	31.91	31.93	0.09%	34.92	9.36%
Mar	34.84	32.82	-5.79%	36.05	9.82%
Apr	34.31	32.09	-6.47%	33.59	4.68%
May	34.27	35.26	2.87%	36.11	2.41%
Jun	38.86	40.97	5.43%	42.51	3.75%
Jul	47.29	43.61	-7.78%	52.65	20.72%
Aug	49.55	48.85	-1.41%	55.36	13.32%
Sep	51.35	54.05	5.27%	56.18	3.94%
Oct	44.79	47.54	6.14%	49.66	4.47%
Nov	38.49	40.93	6.35%	41.18	0.61%
Dec	30.14	31.12	3.27%	32.22	3.53%
Full Year	468.79	471.89	0.66%	502.07	6.39%

Source: Bureau of Energy, 2020c; Bureau of Energy, 2021h.

Note: 1. Most data refer to the monthly energy statistics report retrieved from March 2021 (including the whole year of 2018). However, since the monthly data before 2018 has not been recorded in the monthly energy statistics published after 2021, this table The data from January to December 2018 can only refer to the monthly energy statistics retrieved from 2020.

 

• For example, a detailed examination of the various industries in the industrial sector shows that the power consumption of computer communications and audio-visual electronic product manufacturing increased by 3.931 billion kWh, the textile and clothing and service industries decreased by 1.02 billion kWh, and the remaining industries (excluding others) with increased power consumption increased. The reduction will not exceed 500 million degrees. As in 2019, the electronics industry (55.668 billion kWh), metal basic industry (18.243 billion kWh) and chemical material manufacturing (31.025 billion kWh) will be the main factors affecting the overall electricity consumption of the industrial sector in 2020 (Bureau of Energy, 2021f).

 

Figure 3-1. Trends of power consumption in the industrial sector in 2019
Source: Bureau of Energy (2021f), drawn in this research.

 

4. The growth trend of electric vehicles in the transportation sector

Policy goal

At the end of 2017, the Executive Yuan proposed a new transportation policy. The goal is to fully electrify public service vehicles and public buses by 2030, fully electrify newly sold locomotives in 2035 (i.e. prohibit the sale of fuel-fueled locomotives), and fully electrify newly sold vehicles in 2040 (i.e. ban the sale of fuel-fueled locomotives). Automobile) (Industrial Development Bureau, MOEA（IDB）, 2019a:1). However, facing pressure from all parties in the industry and the market, the implementation of this policy has been suspended in mid-2019 (Bureau of Energy, 2018b). At present, only electric buses have clearly set a full electrification target period, and most of the policy goals of private vehicles are limited to accelerating obsolescence and improving energy consumption.

 

Figure 4-1 Interim goals for the proportion of electric vehicles in new car sales
Source: RSPRC Information Group, 2020.

 

According to the energy-saving period and targets of the transportation sector in the energy transition white paper approved in 2020, 20,000 large diesel vehicles will be replaced by phase 1-3 in 2022; in 2020, the passenger capacity of public road transportation will increase by 2% compared to 2015. Compared with the current standards, the energy consumption standards for new cars in 2022 will be increased by 10% for locomotives, 38% for passenger cars, and 20% for small trucks; the electrification of railways around the island will be completed in 2020; the electrification of urban buses (Bureau of Energy 2020b: 41).

Trend analysis

Private transport-car

 

Table 4-1 Trends in the registration and listing of pure electric vehicles in the past two years (unit: vehicles)

Month	2019		2020
	Number of registered plates	Number of newly licensed plates	Number of registered plates	Number of newly licensed plates	Annual Increase rate (Proposion)
Jan	2,407	44	5,812	145	229.55%
Feb	2,425	18	5,923	111	516.67%
Mar	2,528	101	7,432	1,539	1,423.76%
Apr	2,535	10	7,544	115	1,050%
May	2,907	383	7,646	101	-73.63%
Jun	3,334	435	8,012	370	-14.94%
Jul	3,386	57	8,060	46	-19.30%
Aug	3,448	78	8,884	839	975.64%
Sep	3,949	516	10,003	1,171	126.94%
Oct	4,071	125	9,999	41	-67.2%
Nov	4,514	460	10,481	485	5.43%
Dec	5,672	1,167	11,876	1,397	19.71%
Total	5,672	3,394	11,876	6,360	87.39%

Source: Ministry of Transportation and Communication, 2021a, Ministry of Transportation and Communication, 2021b.

 

Explanation:

1. Vehicle types include coaches, minibuses and minivans.
2. The figures in this table are limited to vehicles with uniform licenses at the end of each month (year). Military vehicles and unlicensed vehicles are not included in the statistics; they also do not include vehicles with temporary licenses.
3. The "Number of registered plates" field is the number of electric vehicle registrations, not the number of new car licenses, which means that this data will change due to the decommissioning of vehicles and does not represent cumulative sales. The "Number of newly licensed plates" column can better reflect sales.

 

• Referring to Table 4-1, although the 87.39% annual growth rate of pure electric vehicles in 2020 is significantly lower than that of 299.29% in 2019, such a growth rate in that year is due to the fact that the sales of pure electric vehicles in 2018 were very small (full year Only 850 new cars have been licensed). In fact, the number of new car licenses in 2020 is nearly 3,000 more than in 2019. If you refer to Table 4-1, the number of licenses in March, April and August has increased significantly compared with the same period in the previous year (Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2021b).

• Comparing the energy of all vehicles, pure electric vehicles accounted for 6,360 (1.39%) of all newly licensed vehicle types in 2020, while non-traditional fuel vehicles including pure electric vehicles accounted for 48,047 ( 10.5%) (Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2021b). This result represents that even though the executive Yuan’s interim goal of electrified vehicles in 2017 has been suspended, the automotive sector still achieved the original target of 10% of new vehicles sold in 2020. However, if we look closely at the 10.5% of the structure, hybrid-fuel vehicles are still the mainstay, and there is still considerable room for growth in the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the new sales market.

 

Private transport-motorcycle

 

Table 4-2 Trends in registration and listing of electric motorcycle in the past two years (unit: vehicles)

Month	2019		2020
	Number of registered plates	Number of newly licensed plates	Number of registered plates	Number of newly licensed plates	Annual Increase rate (Proposion)
Jan	201,980	7,647	361,841	2,101	-72.53%
Feb	207,335	5,473	368,866	7,243	32.34%
Mar	217,020	9,956	378,891	10,322	3.68%
Apr	226,822	10,115	387,453	8,817	-12.83%
May	238,668	12,081	393,628	6,460	-46.53%
Jun	250,477	12,003	400,707	7,337	-38.87%
Jul	262,865	12,591	410,469	10,159	-19.32%
Aug	275,301	12,647	418,387	8,149	-35.57%
Sep	288,239	13,218	428,368	10,261	-22.37%
Oct	306,997	19,272	437,254	9,194	-52.29%
Nov	331,477	24,833	445,878	8,948	-63.97%
Dec	359,934	28,701	455,764	10,213	-64.42%
Total	359,934	168,537	455,764	99,204	-41.14%

Source: Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2021a, Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2021b.

 

Explanation:

1. Vehicle types include ordinary heavy motorcycle, ordinary light motorcycle, and small light-duty motorcycle.
2. The figures in this table are limited to vehicles with uniform licenses at the end of each month (year), excluding vehicles with unlicensed and temporary licenses.
3. The "accumulated registration number" field is the number of electric vehicle registrations, not the number of new car licenses, which means that this data will change due to the decommissioning of vehicles and does not represent cumulative sales. The "Number of Licensed New Cars" column can better reflect sales.

 

• Compared with pure electric vehicles, electric vehicles are obviously affected by the general reduction of subsidies in various counties and cities, and the promotion situation in 2020 is quite unsatisfactory. Take Taoyuan City, which is among the best in the country in terms of subsidy reduction, as an example, the city's electric locomotive growth rate in 2019 was as high as 80.35%, but in 2020 it will only grow by single digits.
• Affected by the fuel level right policy, the Environmental Protection Agency has included the seventh phase of fuel locomotives in the scope of environmental protection subsidies. In 2020, it will provide a subsidy of 5,000 yuan for the replacement of old ones and cancel the subsidies for the purchase of electric motor vehicles in the past. This has exacerbated the decline in the sales of electric vehicles. In 2020, the number of new licenses for electric vehicles will only account for 9.57%, which is far less than the 20% phased goal of electric vehicles proposed by the Executive Yuan in 2017 (see Table 4-3).
• For the comparison of the increase and decrease of subsidy amount and sales volume in each county and city, as well as the overall development status of electric motorcycles in 2020, please refer to the Open Energy column "Equal Oil and electricity Right?: 2020 All Electric motorcycles Sales Trends and Policies" in the Center's Open Energy Newsletter.

 

 

Figure 4-3 Interim goals and actual goals achieved for the proportion of new electric vehicles sold

Source: Statistics Inquiry of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (2021), drawn by the author.

 

Public transportation equipment-railway and urban buses

• According to the aforementioned policy goal of the energy transition white paper, it is expected that the electrification of the roundabout railway will be completed in 2020. However, the construction of the South Loop of the Taiwan Railway and the Chaozhou-Fangliao section of the Pingtung Line has not yet been fully completed, which is the last mile of the electrified road network of the roundabout. The current planning period for this section is expected to end in March 2022 (Railway Bureau, Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2021)  

• Regarding the part of electric buses, the Executive Yuan has announced since December 2017 that 10,000 urban buses will be fully electrified by 2030 (Transport Research Institute of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2019: 2). However, as of October 2020, out of more than 15,000 public buses in the country, only 561 are electric buses, which is two-thirds less than the expected number (李佳穎, 2020). According to this progress, it may not be achieved in 2030 as scheduled. The goal of full electrification. However, the Minister of Transportation at the time approved a three-year electric bus demonstration project in early 2020, and said that 8.5 billion yuan will be allocated for the next four years to promote this project (Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2021c), and this latest phase Whether China's electric bus planning will be effective due to the injection of funds remains to be tracked and observed in the next few years.

 

5. Summary-Energy Transition Progress Checklist

 

Source: Bureau of Energy, 2021a-h, Ministry of Transportation and Communications, 2021a-c, RSPRC Energy Information Group, 2020.

Note：

1. Yellow: partially achieved,partially unachieved；Green: achieved；Red: unachieved。 

 

 

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