Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Photo credit: China Times

This article is a translation of the interview conducted by China Times's Deputy Editor-in-Chief Ann Hsieh with Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic and published on November 4, 2019. The original interview in Chinese can be found here.

In October 2019, Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic visited the Risk Society and Policy Research Center (RSPRC) for an academic exchange. Prof. Nakicenovic is the Executive Director of The World in 2050 (TWI2050) initiative established by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) to develop evidence-based research to guide policymakers in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Prof. Nakicenovic was also formerly IIASA's Deputy Director General/Chief Executive. During his visit, China Times' reporter Ann Hsieh conducted an interview with Prof. Nakicenovic, where the interview was published on 4 November 2019. Below is a translation of the interview.

Reporter Hsieh wrote in the article that that while Taiwan used to be one of the Four Asian Tigers economic miracles, Prof. Nakicenovic proposed three strategies that Taiwan should adopt moving forward to become a new model of low-carbon and innovative sustainable development: the establishment of mechanisms to encourage innovation, the acceleration of Taiwan's digital transformation and the enhancement of energy efficiency in Taiwan. Hsieh also put out some overarching questions on whether the world's countries and cities would be able to achieve the net-zero carbon target by 2050 and whether it would be possible for Taiwan to achieve 100% renewables by then as well.

Hsieh: 2050 is still some way into the future. What is the significance of the TWI2050 project?

Prof. Nakicenovic: The development of human society has already seen massive changes in the last 50 years. In addition, human development and the migration of humans into cities, as well as air pollution and the accumulation of trash is a long-term process, and decisions taken in the next 10 years would therefore create an impact on our world throughout this century, which would require planning over a longer-term horizon, towards 2050. Moreover, taking climate change as an example, it is not possible to resolve this issue in the short term, and it is therefore necessary to think ahead of its impacts until 2100. If Taiwan wants to head towards 100% renewable energy, this would take at least another 20 to 30 years, which makes 2050 a relevant time period to plan towards. We have a responsibility to leave a better environment for future generations, and not one which is worse-off.

Hsieh: What do you think the world in 2050 will look like?

Prof. Nakicenovic: How we should envision the world in 2050 depends on how much effort we are willing to put in to shape it, for example, on the kinds of investments we make to ensure the Earth can be sustainable. We need to avoid drastic climate changes, severe deforestation, the complete melting at the North and South poles, and ocean acidification, as well as reduce air pollution and poverty, the list of things that we need to put effort into changing is very long…

No one can predict what the world in 2050 will really look like. In general, projection research would compare the different scenarios to come out with an optimal projection. The World in 2050 (TWI2050) initiative is different from other projection research in that it seeks to address the key question of how the SDGs can be achieved.

We developed six major transformations needed to achieve the SDGs, primarily in developing human capacity, the circular economy, energy transition, sustainable food systems and biosphere protection, smart cities, and the digital revolution. In order to successfully undergo these six transformations, we need to fully understand history, so as to be able to develop a good understanding of the possible futures.

For example, to achieve the Paris Agreement targets, greenhouse gas emissions would need to be reduced by 50% every decade. In Europe, several cities have already set this as a target, to become zero carbon cities by 2030, but this also relies on the political will of the leaders.

I should emphasize that the 21st century belongs to Asia, and the transformation and growth being undertaken by Asian countries will surpass that of other regions. For example, the electric car market in China is growing very fast.

Hsieh: Taiwan has limited resources and businesses have complained about the "five shortages," of the shortage of water, electricity, land, labor and talent. From the perspective of sustainable development, how would you access the relevance of these five shortages?

Prof. Nakicenovic: Water, land and energy are the basic elements for human survival. There are several regions in this world, where due to the impact of geopolitical or climate change factors, have resulted in water, land and energy resources becoming scarcer. For example, in Sub-Saharan Africa, as temperatures have kept increasing, the soil has become infertile and more people are flocking into cities to make a living, however when faced with the threats of a lack of water and energy, many people are fleeing to other countries, which has resulted in a refugee crisis. In Syria's case, this is a geopolitical issue where there is a great influx of refugees into other countries, and a large part of the reason why these countries face shortages of water and energy is because of climate change.

The Middle Eastern countries are oil-rich, but this oil has become a "resource curse," and while the enterprises in these regions have massive resources, they are also faced with many difficult problems. In comparison, while Northern Europe's Norway is rich in natural gas, it sells the natural gas to other countries instead to help create surpluses for the country's sovereign wealth fund, and this has prevented the natural gas industry from entering its economic system, which is a very smart move.

And if you look at Ireland, it is similarly an island with limited resources, but has nonetheless been able to stimulate many innovations. For Taiwan's case, the lack of natural resources can therefore actually become a driving force for innovation. Taiwan has many outstanding talent, and the government and enterprises could create mechanisms to encourage innovation. There is no need to develop an overreliance on natural resources, when you can develop smart mechanisms to develop your human resources.

Hsieh: What advice do you have for Taiwan in its pathway towards sustainable development?

Prof. Nakicenovic: I am optimistic about Taiwan. First, encouraging innovation should be the most urgent priority. Second, policies should be kept flexible, economic development should be diversified, and the digital revolution should be accelerated. Third, in terms of the energy systems, the most important thing to do is to improve energy efficiency. Many people demand more electricity from the supply-side, but seen from the other perspective, improving energy efficiency is more important. Taiwan used to be one of the Four Asian Tigers, and it should strive to become a new model of sustainable development moving forward.